Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[GoBearcats31]

There are so many different ways to examine bubble teams, and who knows what the committee will emphasize. But one metric where UC will likely stand out is performance in true road games.

UC is now 4-4 including three Q1 road victories plus Howard (hoping UCF stays top 75 in the NET).

Utah is 1-5. Mississippi State is 0-6. Nebraska is 1-7. Villanova is 2-6.

Counterpoint: Miss State is 6-0 in neutral court games …

[GoBearcats31]

I wonder if Samford could get a look as an at-large. They took advantage of their last remaining quality game last night, winning at UNCG. Samford currently sits at 19-3 with a 2-2 record in Q1/Q2 games and one bad loss. If they take care of business the rest of the way and lose in the conference tourney final, they'd be 28-4. But without a Q1 win, it probably won't be enough. Such is life for small conference teams.

Samford lost today

[GoBearcats31]

Indiana State goes 0-2 this week, which I would guess hurts their ability to get an at-large bid/reduces likelihood of an eventual bid thief out of the MVC.

ISU lost at Southern Illinois tonight. Massive block by Jarrett Hensley late to effectively preserve the win.

[Carthage World]

Indiana St just lost a Q2 road game at #117 Southern Illinois 74-69. Jarrett Hensley had a big block with 10 seconds left in the game.

[sedz]

There are so many different ways to examine bubble teams, and who knows what the committee will emphasize. But one metric where UC will likely stand out is performance in true road games.

UC is now 4-4 including three Q1 road victories plus Howard (hoping UCF stays top 75 in the NET).

Utah is 1-5. Mississippi State is 0-6. Nebraska is 1-7. Villanova is 2-6.

Counterpoint: Miss State is 6-0 in neutral court games …

Yep, our great road performance will hopefully be able to overcome our poor out of conference slate. Three Q1 road wins puts us a leg up on many bubble teams.

[sedz]

This might sound crazy but I really think Kentucky could be in trouble if they go 0-4 in their remaining Q1 games, beginning at Auburn tomorrow night. The way they're playing now that's a real possibility. They'd be 2-9 in Q1 if that happens, and they've got a bad home loss to UNC Wilmington.

Kentucky won at Auburn - so much for that idea.

[sedz]

Indiana St just lost a Q2 road game at #117 Southern Illinois 74-69. Jarrett Hensley had a big block with 10 seconds left in the game.

Their second straight loss. Drake might now have the best resume in the MVC. Despite a trio of bad losses, they're 3-1 in Q1 (though the home win over Indiana St will probably drop to Q2 now).

[Carthage World]

Two notable bubble-on-bubble match-ups today:

Memphis (#81) @ SMU (#41) - a SMU win would only be Q3 and probably wouldn't move the needle for a team with an 0-3 Q1 record.

Seton Hall (#68) @ St. John's (#45) - St. John's would still have a 2-9 Q1 record with a win (while Seton Hall would be 5-5 in Q1) so they're probably the safer bet here.

[sedz]

South Florida has a big early lead on Florida Atlantic right now on ESPN. USF doesn't have great resume, with only 3 quality wins and 2 Q4 losses. But if they win out they would be 2-0 in Q1 and 4-3 in Q2.

[Carthage World]

South Florida has a big early lead on Florida Atlantic right now on ESPN. USF doesn't have great resume, with only 3 quality wins and 2 Q4 losses. But if they win out they would be 2-0 in Q1 and 4-3 in Q2.

USF had a 24-point 2nd half lead get whittled all the way down to 1 with 20 seconds left but they do enough late to hold on and win by 4.

[GoBearcats31]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

[GoBearcats31]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

Jeff Borzello: “That's a soul-crushing loss for St. John's, blowing a 19-point lead & falling by 6 to fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Red Storm scored just 21 points in the 2nd half. They're now 2-8 in their last 10 games and sit ninth in the Big East. Can't afford another regular-season loss.”

[Carthage World]

Jeff Borzello: “That's a soul-crushing loss for St. John's, blowing a 19-point lead & falling by 6 to fellow bubble team Seton Hall. Red Storm scored just 21 points in the 2nd half. They're now 2-8 in their last 10 games and sit ninth in the Big East. Can't afford another regular-season loss.”

21 2nd half points is a flattering stat. St. John's didn't make their second field goal of the half until the 6:48 mark.

They looked horrendous and I can't see them playing their way back onto the bubble after that toothless 2nd half performance.

[Carthage World]

Seton Hall gets a big road win at St. John's in a double bubble

Memphis falls by 27 at SMU -- Tigers are toast

Northwestern picks up a 4 point road win at Indiana in a game less close than the final score appeared

SMU could've named the score in that game. Memphis is nowhere near the same team that we knew from the past few seasons in the AAC.

Wouldn't be surprised to see SMU jump us in the NET rankings tomorrow.

[bearcatbret]

UC's favorite predictor still has UC out of the field. Cincinnati Remains in Joe Lunardi's First Four Out After UCF Win (heartlandcollegesports.com)