Bubble Watch / Bracketology

[sedz]

One big bubble game tonight as Seton Hall hosts Xavier. I don't like to root for X but I will hold my nose and do it.

Richmond will be trying to avoid a bad loss against UMass. They currently sit atop the A10 and will look to survive a bunch of Q3 landmines to finish out the month before getting a couple of Q2 opportunities in March. A home win over Dayton is the only thing keeping them alive right now.

[GoBearcats31]

One big bubble game tonight as Seton Hall hosts Xavier. I don't like to root for X but I will hold my nose and do it.

Richmond will be trying to avoid a bad loss against UMass. They currently sit atop the A10 and will look to survive a bunch of Q3 landmines to finish out the month before getting a couple of Q2 opportunities in March. A home win over Dayton is the only thing keeping them alive right now.

X is getting crushed right now and I’m not upset. I suppose if Seton Hall finishes the job, their metrics could take a jump with a large margin of victory. I’m sure sedz can educate us on why that’s not good for UC. But X at 13-12 (7-7 in a meh Big East) wouldn’t exactly scream quality win.

[sedz]

X is getting crushed right now and I’m not upset. I suppose if Seton Hall finishes the job, their metrics could take a jump with a large margin of victory. I’m sure sedz can educate us on why that’s not good for UC. But X at 13-12 (7-7 in a meh Big East) wouldn’t exactly scream quality win.

Xavier sucks. That's all you need to know.

[sedz]

One big bubble game tonight as Seton Hall hosts Xavier. I don't like to root for X but I will hold my nose and do it.

Richmond will be trying to avoid a bad loss against UMass. They currently sit atop the A10 and will look to survive a bunch of Q3 landmines to finish out the month before getting a couple of Q2 opportunities in March. A home win over Dayton is the only thing keeping them alive right now.

So Seton Hall gets a Q2 win. Maybe Lunardi will move them back ahead of us.

Richmond got blown up by Frank Martin's UMass landmine. They've now got two Q3 losses and just one Q1 win. And since they're no longer leading the A10 they'll drop out of everyone's brackets, including Lunardi and Palm.

[GoBearcats31]

Thursday games of interest (let me know if I missed any):

Northwestern* at Rutgers at 6:30 (Northwestern 3.5 point underdog)
Memphis at North Texas at 8:00 (Memphis 1.5 point underdog)
Colorado at UCLA Thursday at 9:00 (Colorado 1.5 point favorite)
Gonzaga at LMU Thursday at 9:00 (Gonzaga 14.5 point favorite)
Cal at Washington State at 10:00 (Wash. State 9.5 point favorite)
Utah at USC Thursday at 11:00 (Utah 1.5 point underdog)

* Northwestern's sharp-shooting guard Ty Berry (11.6 ppg / 43.3%) is out for the remainder of the year, it was announced yesterday.

[sedz]

More carnage on the bubble as Northwestern, Memphis, Colorado, and Utah all go down. Memphis and Colorado are playing themselves out of contention, and Utah has now lost 5 of their last 6.

[Carthage World]

More carnage on the bubble as Northwestern, Memphis, Colorado, and Utah all go down. Memphis and Colorado are playing themselves out of contention, and Utah has now lost 5 of their last 6.

Great night, indeed. We're fortunate that USC and UCLA performed well below their talent levels early in the season. Hopefully both teams can continue to play spoiler down the stretch.

[GoBearcats31]

Just realized/remembered the following: "the top two teams in the NET rankings from each of the major six conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament will earn the first 12 NIT automatic bids and have the right to host first-round games." https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...irst-12-spots/

While this thread is geared towards UC hopefully make the NCAA Tournament, given the team's NET ranking (assuming they don't tank down the stretch) they are on track for an NIT bid it would seem. But noting that the transfer portal opens the day after Selection Sunday, I believe, it could make for a weird event. UC, as of now, projects to have good roster stability heading into next season. But there will be other teams that could look like a college football team playing a bowl game with guys immediately portaling and/or wanting to sit out to protect draft stock.

[sedz]

Just realized/remembered the following: "the top two teams in the NET rankings from each of the major six conferences (ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12, SEC) that did not qualify for the NCAA Tournament will earn the first 12 NIT automatic bids and have the right to host first-round games." https://www.cbssports.com/college-ba...irst-12-spots/

While this thread is geared towards UC hopefully make the NCAA Tournament, given the team's NET ranking (assuming they don't tank down the stretch) they are on track for an NIT bid it would seem. But noting that the transfer portal opens the day after Selection Sunday, I believe, it could make for a weird event. UC, as of now, projects to have good roster stability heading into next season. But there will be other teams that could look like a college football team playing a bowl game with guys immediately portaling and/or wanting to sit out to protect draft stock.

As a fan of college basketball in general, I don't like the NIT changes. Small and mid-major conference winners are no longer given an automatic invite. For many of those schools, it was their only opportunity to potentially host a major conference team. We experienced that last year as we travelled to Hofstra and Utah Valley. They're trying to generate more revenue by getting more major teams in there, but it's still going to be a secondary tournament. I think they're more likely to get some passionate fans from small schools who are excited to be there than programs like ours that will be mostly disinterested.

[Lobot]

Bubble watch article from The Athletic. They have us in Bubble Trouble ($)

https://theathletic.com/5275838/2024...is-iowa-state/

First four out here as well:

https://theathletic.com/5277448/2024...top-16-reveal/

[GoBearcats31]

Here are some bubbly games to keep an eye on this weekend -- feel free to add more if you see them. Underline refers to bubble team. Some teams are barely in the discussion (Oregon) whereas others may be in good shape as it stands today but far from safe (New Mexico) - most in the middle.


Friday
Villanova at Georgetown (7:00 CBSSN)
New Mexico at San Diego State (10:00 FS1)

Saturday
Texas A&M at #15 Alabama (12:00 ESPN)
Wake Forest at #21 Virginia (12:00 ESPN2)
TCU at Kansas State (12:00 ESPNU)
Penn State at Nebraska (12:00 BTN)
#17 Creighton at Butler (12:30 FOX)
Arkansas at Mississippi State (2:00 ESPNU)
**Cincinnati at UCF (4:00 ESPN+)
Stanford at Washington State (6:00 Pac12)
Georgia Southern at James Madison (6:00 ESPN+)
#23 Indiana State at Southern Illinois (7:00 ESPN+)
Fresno State at Boise State (7:30 CBSSN)
DePaul at Providence (7:30 FS1)
Missouri at Ole Miss (8:30 SEC)
Pacific at Gonzaga (9:00 ESPN+)
Oregon at Oregon State (10:00 Pac12)
Nevada at UNLV (11:30)

Sunday
Northwestern at Indiana (3:00 FS1)
Memphis at SMU (4:00 ESPN)
Seton Hall at St. John's (5:00 FS1)
Utah at UCLA (7:00 FS1)

[sedz]

Here are some bubbly games to keep an eye on this weekend...

Great list, I appreciate the times and networks.

This might sound crazy but I really think Kentucky could be in trouble if they go 0-4 in their remaining Q1 games, beginning at Auburn tomorrow night. The way they're playing now that's a real possibility. They'd be 2-9 in Q1 if that happens, and they've got a bad home loss to UNC Wilmington.

[Carthage World]

Villanova won by 16 at Georgetown to rise 4 spots overnight to #34 in NET. Their resume is a fascinating one as they have a respectable 3-6 Q1 record and a 5-2 Q2 record but an abysmal 2-3 Q3 record.

New Mexico lost by 11 at SDSU last night but only dropped one spot in NET to #23. They are 3-3 in Q1 and 1-2 in Q2 with 1 Q3 loss. They have 2 guaranteed Q1 games remaining (@Boise St and @Utah St) along with a fringe Q1/Q2 home game against Colorado St among their final 5 regular season games.

[sedz]

Wake Forest, Texas A&M, and Butler have already lost today. We're the first team out on bracketmatrix. A tournament spot is there for the taking if we can get the Q1 road win.

[GoBearcats31]

Wake Forest, Texas A&M, and Butler have already lost today. We're the first team out on bracketmatrix. A tournament spot is there for the taking if we can get the Q1 road win.

For what it’s worth, TAMU and Butler both got crushed

Wake Forest lost 49-47
Nebraska won by 19
Butler lost by 22
Texas A&M lost by 25
TCU beat KSU by 3