Expansion Thread 2023

[bearcatbret]

I have been reading the replies to the embedded tweet. They are all calculating where each school from the AAC goes. It is parallel to replies to the PAC tweets. Just interesting to see the east coast take on the importance of each school and where they think those schools belong. However, if I were Washington or Oregon, I would be worried about being left out.

New Report Reveals Seven Schools Actively Exploring Circumventing ACC's Grant of Rights (msn.com)

[Chewbacca2099]

If the ACC implodes, would we prefer to be in a reformed ACC with our more traditional (and closer) rival schools if the money is about the same? I'd prefer to be playing Pitt and UL than Texas Tech & Iowa State. Easy away games to drive to as well. The other obvious option is the Big12 takes 4-6 teams (Wake Forest & Boston College move to AAC), but if they expand now with PAC teams that might make us TOO big

[red_n_black_attack]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/1...-5-conferences



Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy
Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, NC State, Virginia & Virginia Tech are “The Magnificent 7” ACC schools, sources told
@ActionNetworkHQ
. These schools,
@RossDellenger
reported, have met in past several months, w/lawyers examining grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is. ACC deal runs thru 2036




Get ready to hold on folks! Two big credible journalists dropping nukes on conference realignment. Dellenger's article talks about how the Big XII is gunning for the 4 corner schools, but has a list of G5 that include UNLV and Memphis if the 4C plan doesn't work. Also speaks on the 7, who McMurphy outs in his tweet. Heard SDSU exit fees triple June 30th so something may happen before then.

If ACC implodes, Big 12 would go east before Pac10 or G5. Imagine likes of Ga Tech, NC St, Va Tech, Pitt, or Loserville in the Big 12. Any are better than 4 corners.

[True Bearcat]

https://www.si.com/college/2023/05/1...-5-conferences



Brett McMurphy

@Brett_McMurphy
Clemson, FSU, Miami, UNC, NC State, Virginia & Virginia Tech are “The Magnificent 7” ACC schools, sources told
@ActionNetworkHQ
. These schools,
@RossDellenger
reported, have met in past several months, w/lawyers examining grant-of-rights to determine just how unbreakable it is. ACC deal runs thru 2036




Get ready to hold on folks! Two big credible journalists dropping nukes on conference realignment. Dellenger's article talks about how the Big XII is gunning for the 4 corner schools, but has a list of G5 that include UNLV and Memphis if the 4C plan doesn't work. Also speaks on the 7, who McMurphy outs in his tweet. Heard SDSU exit fees triple June 30th so something may happen before then.

[red_n_black_attack]

i think the ACC will be above / at the B12's payout, until the B12's next deal, in 2031. That's when the B12 will pass the ACC, as the ACC is locked in, until 2026. I think FSU knows it will take a while to get out of the ACC, assuming they even can, and is looking at that 2031 date as armageddon - when the riff raff (ucf, uc, etc) makes more. he's got some time, but he wants to get 'er done well before then.

The ACC is locked into a deal that pays 16-17 million/team per year through 2036. Florida State is popping blood vessels at the prospect that UCF will make nearly twice as much money from the Big 12 than they make in the ACC, and UCF will likely make even more in our next Big 12 media deal. This is why there is speculation the ACC may vote to dissolve. 4-6 ACC teams would easily land in Big 10 or SEC and almost immediately make 6-8 times more per year, with another at least 4 ACC teams finding a home in the Big 12 "only making twice" their current revenue. If 9 ACC teams vote to dissolve the conference, then the ACC GoR is dissolved and teams can move conferences. I see the ACC imploding within a matter of months (9-15 months or less). The ACC is not waiting until 2031.

[D.A.H.]

I saw that article about FSU and thought it was like whining. Here is the article - FSU AD Michael Alford: Idea that UCF could have better media deal ‘just not acceptable to us’ (msn.com)

i think the ACC will be above / at the B12's payout, until the B12's next deal, in 2031. That's when the B12 will pass the ACC, as the ACC is locked in, until 2026. I think FSU knows it will take a while to get out of the ACC, assuming they even can, and is looking at that 2031 date as armageddon - when the riff raff (ucf, uc, etc) makes more. he's got some time, but he wants to get 'er done well before then.

[bearcatbret]

I saw that article about FSU and thought it was like whining. Here is the article - FSU AD Michael Alford: Idea that UCF could have better media deal ‘just not acceptable to us’ (msn.com)

Here is an interesting read about the state of the Power 5. Expansion, realignment and what’s next for ACC, Big 12 and Pac-12 - Sports Illustrated

[Lobot]

Lane change.

The FSU AD is not happy with the fact the UCF has a better TV deal than FSU has. He's out here again not being shy about FSU getting a uneven distribution from the ACC. Sounds like Clemson and Miami aren't particularly happy either based on his phrasing. The ACC summer meetings will be fun.

[bearcatbret]

Is there anything to the reports that the Big 10 has vetted Oregon and UDub?

I do not believe anything that I read. That being said, I am fascinated with all of the predictions and rumors because they all seem to contradict each other. I suspect that the PAC is sweating bullets right now and are scared to death of becoming irrelevant. Given their pompous attitude and inflated egos, they have to be besides themselves because they have become a comedian's dream. I have read where the BIG 10 does not want Oregon and Washington because studies have shown that they do not bring TV revenue. I have also read that the Big 10 is waiting to pick off the ACC.

Now the McMurphy article says that Oregon and W have admitted to being vetted. I wonder if that is true. Here are a few things that race through my 2-dimensional mind. First, Oregon and Washington have said this and it is so they can control the PAC media distribution. Second, it was not Oregon or Washington but some other force that has the desire to undermine the PAC. This could be a TV outlet or another conference. Third, maybe the BIG 10 has vetted them and the news leaked out so that part of the four corner schools' bolts. This is because the Big 10 does not want to be the ones who collapsed the PAC.

Again, I find this very interesting because it kind of reminds me of the old Big East where it became every school for themselves, and the leftovers had to become the AAC. Everything may be okay with the PAC but the longer this drags on and with more news like this one coming out daily, it has to make the existing teams of the PAC worried and it may make potential new teams stay away such as it happened with the old Big East. Remember that one article stated that Colorado and Arizona were going to announce after Memorial Day that they are moving to the Big 12.

[red_n_black_attack]

Is there anything to the reports that the Big 10 has vetted Oregon and UDub?

https://www.heartlandcollegesports.com/2023/05/14/oregon-washington-vetted-and-cleared-to-join-big-ten-brett-mcmurphy

[bearcatbret]

It appears that Amazon is out of the PAC deal and all others are looking to get basement bargain rates. Pac-12 media rights negotiations: Potential partner 'unlikely' to make a deal with conference (msn.com)

This references a source that Colorado and Arizona will be leaving the PAC after Memorial Day. Pac-12 TV negotiations reaching critical stage as mood, atmosphere grow more stressful (msn.com)

[bearcatbret]

This is an interesting read about how much each Big 10 football team is worth and it mixes in USC and UCLA. Which are richest and poorest football programs in Big Ten? (And where do the new L.A. schools fit in?) | Jones | Basketball | lancasteronline.com
It is no wonder why many universities just cannot compete with the upper third of that conference.

[red_n_black_attack]

Illuminerdski, it has been said that the best way for the GOR of the ACC to be broken is that the majority of the teams vote to dissolve it. If over half of the teams feel that they will be picked up by either the BIG 10 or the SEC, it may just happen. So, let's try to figure out just who the SEC or BIG10 might be interested in. These teams would be FSU, Clemson, Miami, and then who?

FSU and Clemson could go either Big10 or SEC
Big10 also would like Virginia and North Carolina, per various sources,
SEC would also like Miami

That's only five. Some others may think SEC or Big10 would take them or there are unsabstantiated rumors, like BC to Big, Duke and N Carolina as package deals, but those five are the only "locks" and conferences don't like to expand to uneven numbers so it will be a fight between SEC and Big10 who gets two or four. Honestly, I think Big10 can cherry pick since they control more money and are not on ESPN, which owns current ACC deal and would try to stop ACC breakup since they are losing money. For sake of argument, let's assume SEC and Big 10 takes the top six between them, then maybe another 4 find a home in the Big 12

Big Ten - N Carolina, Clemson, FSU, and Miami would be the homerun, but some could go to SEC or Big 10, including Virginia and Duke, so these six are gone in heartbeat for either conference. Just imagine an SEC basketball tourney with UK, UNC, and Duke...plus the other rising SEC teams. sorry got on a sidebar, and even with football being realignment king, Duke basketball might be enough, even though Kansas basketball isn't.

Big 12 easily has interest in Pitt, Loserville,

Do any of these float your boat to the Big 12: Va Tech, Ga Tech, NC State, BC, Cuse, or Wake?

Net - 8 teams easily have a new home. minimum two others will be taken just so a conference doesn't get left behind.

P.S. If Big ten takes the top four ACC teams, that is a nightmare for the Pac10 and could open up Big 12 expansion to add higher profile Pac 10 teams than four corners.

[bearcatbret]

This is just one talking head that believes that the PAC can only get 7 votes on their media rights deal. They need to get to 8. Pac-12 Death Blow? Broadcast Expert Williams Breaks Down Apple Media Rights Offer for Pac-12 Content - Bing video
I doubt if he knows anything about what the current deals look like.

[bearcatbret]

Illuminerdski, it has been said that the best way for the GOR of the ACC to be broken is that the majority of the teams vote to dissolve it. If over half of the teams feel that they will be picked up by either the BIG 10 or the SEC, it may just happen. So, let's try to figure out just who the SEC or BIG10 might be interested in. These teams would be FSU, Clemson, Miami, and then who?