Big 12 talk is back thanks to Texas.

[Lobot]

Ah ha! OK here's my take. AD at Texas is gone end of year, Coaches at Texas will be gone at end of seasons President at Texas is having his job "reviewed" on 12/12 and likely also out. These people were instrumental in the Longhorn Network and the splintering of the Big 12. They are currently the major opposition to expansion of the league.

Texas is basically doing a regime change. So I'm guessing 1 of 2 things happens. 1) Texas and OU split for Pac-12 or 2) Big 12 expands with UC and either BYU or UCF. And if you read between the lines, if 1 happens 2 is necessary to keep the conference afloat. How'd I do?

[insomniaisevil]

Ah ha! OK here's my take. AD at Texas is gone end of year, Coaches at Texas will be gone at end of seasons President at Texas is having his job "reviewed" on 12/12 and likely also out. These people were instrumental in the Longhorn Network and the splintering of the Big 12. They are currently the major opposition to expansion of the league.

Texas is basically doing a regime change. So I'm guessing 1 of 2 things happens. 1) Texas and OU split for Pac-12 or 2) Big 12 expands with UC and either BYU or UCF. And if you read between the lines, if 1 happens 2 is necessary to keep the conference afloat. How'd I do?

Thanks a lot for the summary!

That actually makes a lot of sense. I've followed the conference situations very closely for the past couple years...until the season began this year and I've just been out of the loop.

Hopefully some GOOD news for UC.

[bobestes]

You want to join that dumpster fire of a conference?

[BearCatMarcher]

You want to join that dumpster fire of a conference?

Do you prefer OUR dumpster fire?

[insomniaisevil]

Do you prefer OUR dumpster fire?

I'll take the dumpster fire that increases tv revenue almost 10 fold.

[RedDog]

Without Texas and OU, who seemingly are sure to bolt, whats left that's appealing? I still prefer staying put for a short while until the dust settles and we know what we are getting into. I realize we are not holding the cards, have little leverage, but a knee jerk panicked reaction can be more harmful than the results of patience. I am just not a fan of the Big 12 option, even if Texas stays. The next round of reorganization will only be an option for us if we haven't already aligned with the Big 12 and then can't get out of it. Yes I would rather stay for the short term in our current dumpster fire than make the financial obligation to join a bigger dumpster fire.

[Bearcat_DF]

It might be worth thinking of trying to round up the best remnants of the Big 12 to the American.

A football conference with teams from Ohio, TX (Baylor and Texas Tech w/ Houston - screw TCU); and FLA (USF & UCF) could be the foundation of a pretty good league.

The teams don't have great brand names now and the geography is terrible - but given the HS programs in those 3 states - you should be able to create quality teams.

[RedDog]

That would make more sense to me. Plus being a cornerstone would give us a greater voice, more input and certainly a better footprint for the conference. Not likely to happen but a good thought anyway.

[blackattack]

Without Texas and OU, who seemingly are sure to bolt, whats left that's appealing? .

Just curious, where are Texas and OU going to go? They're not going to the SEC or the PAC-12, that ship has sailed. The B1G?......can you picture the control freaks that run the athletic dept in Austin, TX playing second or third fiddle to the folks in Ann Arbor and Columbus.........yea I want to see that.

[London 'Cat]

My theory is that the Board of Trustees at Texas (and maybe Oklahoma too, but not due to actions of the OU AD/coaches, etc.) feel that the former TX AD, Coach Brown and Coach Barnes are largely responsible for the weakening of the Big XII conference. And now, Texas is experiencing a recruiting disadvantage due to the perceived weaker conference. Further, Oklahoma State and Baylor seem to be building big momentum that Texas and Oklahoma perceive as a threat to their alpha-dog status in the conference. So, the idea is to start fresh and perhaps be a little less selfish with revenue sharing and other matters to allow all programs in the conference to succeed also, thereby raising its own profile by becoming the champion of a stronger conference. If this requires the addition of a program like UC or some others to replace what has been lost in TAM and Mizzou, the conference overall and the alpha-dog schools may welcome those additions.

I base my theory purely on speculation and conjecture, admittedly, but the way things are developing leads me to this theory.

[1977 BearCat]

My theory is that the Board of Trustees at Texas (and maybe Oklahoma too, but not due to actions of the OU AD/coaches, etc.) feel that the former TX AD, Coach Brown and Coach Barnes are largely responsible for the weakening of the Big XII conference. And now, Texas is experiencing a recruiting disadvantage due to the perceived weaker conference. Further, Oklahoma State and Baylor seem to be building big momentum that Texas and Oklahoma perceive as a threat to their alpha-dog status in the conference. So, the idea is to start fresh and perhaps be a little less selfish with revenue sharing and other matters to allow all programs in the conference to succeed also, thereby raising its own profile by becoming the champion of a stronger conference. If this requires the addition of a program like UC or some others to replace what has been lost in TAM and Mizzou, the conference overall and the alpha-dog schools may welcome those additions.

I base my theory purely on speculation and conjecture, admittedly, but the way things are developing leads me to this theory.

If that happens, Austin will have been ground zero for an invasion of body snatchers!

[RedDog]

With all due respect London Cat, I don't buy your theory. Texas wants its cake and eat it too, regardless of who is in control there. They will never relinquish power and revenue they have already negotiated. They could care less if the rest of the conference is financially strong or competitive. They certainly don't need us and whatever you perceive that we bring to the party. They remain one of the biggest plums for another healthier more lucrative conference to pluck. I have no idea what developments are still to come, but they will eventually achieve there objective of playing in a better conference AND retaining all their financial and TV perks.

[Bearcattitue92]

Reality Check

Group, I feel we are over complicating this, it is very simple. It boils down to the almighty dollar.

REALITY CHECK:

THE ACC IS OUT FOR US! They have locked the schools into a HUGE buyout clause, that even the B1G or SEC can't touch. As the only way for us to be invites is if someone leaves, which based on above this not going to happen.

TELEVISION: The B1G did not grab Maryland and Rutgers because of the school's but because of their location, but because of the television markets. Even though their are not a lot of people tuned in to watch Rutgers Football, but now you have the B1G network in the New York, Maryland and DC markets.

Cincinnati is ranked 31st in the television markets.

B1G EXPANSION: Not going to happen for us, not with the 800 pound Gorilla 90 miles north.

BIG 12: Is our best option. However, there are 10 schools in the BIG 12, as such 10 schools are sharing a $300M TV Contract, $30M per school. So if we are to get an invite 2 things will have to happen:
1) The BIG 12 commissioner contacts ESPN and asks "By adding Cincinnati, will it increase our television contract to at least $350m-$400M?" $31-$36M per to get approval from the other schools.
2) ESPN Asks their sponsors "By adding Cincinnati, will this increase my revenue to $500M for broadcasting BIG 12 Games?

We are definitely the BEST viable candidate for any BIG 5 Conference expansion. But we need to focus on 3 key things

1) Keeping Whit Babcock! Keeping Whit Babcock! Keeping Whit Babcock!
2) Complete the Stadium Renovation driving Corporate sponsorship
3) Selling out games against old Conference USA opponents.

Bottom Line, if we are not in 1 of the 5 big conferences, in 5 years when the Newness of the Stadium revamp is over, we will fall into mediocrity.

[London 'Cat]

With all due respect London Cat, I don't buy your theory. Texas wants its cake and eat it too, regardless of who is in control there. They will never relinquish power and revenue they have already negotiated. They could care less if the rest of the conference is financially strong or competitive. They certainly don't need us and whatever you perceive that we bring to the party. They remain one of the biggest plums for another healthier more lucrative conference to pluck. I have no idea what developments are still to come, but they will eventually achieve there objective of playing in a better conference AND retaining all their financial and TV perks.

You may also be right. But Texas has nowhere to go. Unless the B1G wants to expand to 16 teams, perhaps adding Texas and Oklahoma, it makes no sense for Texas to move elsewhere.

[insomniaisevil]

I couldn't agree more with all this below. It's all about the money...and this is where the money is.

Have we lost sight of how much help it would be to grow the revenue by 10 overnight? This helps the entire sports program. This is a very very good thing.

Group, I feel we are over complicating this, it is very simple. It boils down to the almighty dollar.

REALITY CHECK:

THE ACC IS OUT FOR US! They have locked the schools into a HUGE buyout clause, that even the B1G or SEC can't touch. As the only way for us to be invites is if someone leaves, which based on above this not going to happen.

TELEVISION: The B1G did not grab Maryland and Rutgers because of the school's but because of their location, but because of the television markets. Even though their are not a lot of people tuned in to watch Rutgers Football, but now you have the B1G network in the New York, Maryland and DC markets.

Cincinnati is ranked 31st in the television markets.

B1G EXPANSION: Not going to happen for us, not with the 800 pound Gorilla 90 miles north.

BIG 12: Is our best option. However, there are 10 schools in the BIG 12, as such 10 schools are sharing a $300M TV Contract, $30M per school. So if we are to get an invite 2 things will have to happen:
1) The BIG 12 commissioner contacts ESPN and asks "By adding Cincinnati, will it increase our television contract to at least $350m-$400M?" $31-$36M per to get approval from the other schools.
2) ESPN Asks their sponsors "By adding Cincinnati, will this increase my revenue to $500M for broadcasting BIG 12 Games?

We are definitely the BEST viable candidate for any BIG 5 Conference expansion. But we need to focus on 3 key things

1) Keeping Whit Babcock! Keeping Whit Babcock! Keeping Whit Babcock!
2) Complete the Stadium Renovation driving Corporate sponsorship
3) Selling out games against old Conference USA opponents.

Bottom Line, if we are not in 1 of the 5 big conferences, in 5 years when the Newness of the Stadium revamp is over, we will fall into mediocrity.