Big 12 in 2016

[Lobot]

Pretty good article from Pete Thamel on the future of the Big12 , AAC and new media.

http://www.campusrush.com/aac-big-12...956747135.html

[98bearcat]

I hate to give this life by voicing it, but I'm going to do it anyways. My question to all is this:
What if this whole thing ends up being a money grab by OU and TX... they add 4 teams get the huge increase in extra cash, then they lower the 4 new schools payouts to where they won't get equal shares of TV money until after 2025 and the TV deals get re-negotiated. BUT, in 2025 both OU and TX bolt to new conferences...
How much debt is UC taking on to get in the Big12 vs the next 6 years of increased payouts, but lowered payouts because of the phase in... Is it still worth it?
My opinion is to say yes, because at worse case it, gives UC 6 years to build a larger national following and hopefully get some big wins especially in their last 3 years in the conference.

[red_n_black_attack]

I hate to give this life by voicing it, but I'm going to do it anyways. My question to all is this:
What if this whole thing ends up being a money grab by OU and TX... they add 4 teams get the huge increase in extra cash, then they lower the 4 new schools payouts to where they won't get equal shares of TV money until after 2025 and the TV deals get re-negotiated. BUT, in 2025 both OU and TX bolt to new conferences...
How much debt is UC taking on to get in the Big12 vs the next 6 years of increased payouts, but lowered payouts because of the phase in... Is it still worth it?
My opinion is to say yes, because at worse case it, gives UC 6 years to build a larger national following and hopefully get some big wins especially in their last 3 years in the conference.

They would have 8 years before 2025 and would be a full member in 4-5 years. Even if it is a money grab, UC should go for it because in order to be considered for the next round of realignment you will have to be in the P-5. There won't be schools jumping from Group of Five to Super Four because there will be P-5 teams that get left out (mostly bottom tier of the conference that gets contracted). It's also possible that the total bottom dwellers get booted and the top 64 completely trade around current conference membership.

[Lobot]

This reminds me a little of the UIL here in Texas. Think OHSAA for those not familiar. The UIL blows up it's alignments very 4 years based on school demographics. The schools that got bigger in attendance move up and the ones that shrank move down. There are 6 divisions here.

The Big 12 Texas schools are probably really familiar how a system like this works so yes I think the Big 12 conference blows up in 2025 mostly because of UT and LHN wanting to move up to either the Big Ten or the SEC. I'm guessing someone out there has already drafted a scenario for the NCAA to blow up the existing conference ties and do a total realignment that makes some damn sense. I'm also betting some schools have already done leg work on it. I think the only things that stops this are the higher up folks in the resistant to change dept. It makes sense to me to have 4 fairly equally weighted big conferences with identical money flowing in so no one league has a $ advantage or maybe you just create a new governing body and ditch the NCAA and amateurism altogether.

[bearcatbret]

http://www.vivathematadors.com/2016/...t-region-final Complete your bracket here......

Interesting news going back to the networks... http://www.campusrush.com/big-12-exp...957715979.html

[98bearcat]

This reminds me a little of the UIL here in Texas. Think OHSAA for those not familiar. The UIL blows up it's alignments very 4 years based on school demographics. The schools that got bigger in attendance move up and the ones that shrank move down. There are 6 divisions here.

The Big 12 Texas schools are probably really familiar how a system like this works so yes I think the Big 12 conference blows up in 2025 mostly because of UT and LHN wanting to move up to either the Big Ten or the SEC. I'm guessing someone out there has already drafted a scenario for the NCAA to blow up the existing conference ties and do a total realignment that makes some damn sense. I'm also betting some schools have already done leg work on it. I think the only things that stops this are the higher up folks in the resistant to change dept. It makes sense to me to have 4 fairly equally weighted big conferences with identical money flowing in so no one league has a $ advantage or maybe you just create a new governing body and ditch the NCAA and amateurism altogether.

O man LOBOT... I completely forgot your in Texas... You have way more invested in this move to the Big12 happening than we do.. Can't imagine how great it would be for you to have access to seeing 2 maybe 3 UC games in Texas each year...

[coach]

This reminds me a little of the UIL here in Texas. Think OHSAA for those not familiar. The UIL blows up it's alignments very 4 years based on school demographics. The schools that got bigger in attendance move up and the ones that shrank move down. There are 6 divisions here.

The Big 12 Texas schools are probably really familiar how a system like this works so yes I think the Big 12 conference blows up in 2025 mostly because of UT and LHN wanting to move up to either the Big Ten or the SEC. I'm guessing someone out there has already drafted a scenario for the NCAA to blow up the existing conference ties and do a total realignment that makes some damn sense. I'm also betting some schools have already done leg work on it. I think the only things that stops this are the higher up folks in the resistant to change dept. It makes sense to me to have 4 fairly equally weighted big conferences with identical money flowing in so no one league has a $ advantage or maybe you just create a new governing body and ditch the NCAA and amateurism altogether.

I think there is a middle ground here financially that if the big12 has any interest in keeping this group/conference together the other schools would need to have. It's not going to help their cause if the other teams cannot compete. I'm not sure that the other schools involved can afford to take the haircuts that some suggest they would take to get in. It's one thing to talk that, but another thing to write the checks for 8 years. At the end of the day, if you are better off than you were currently, and get the opportunity raise your program's profile it makes sense.

[bearcatbret]

http://www.outkickthecoverage.com/bi...and-sec-080316 I can see something like this happening and many on here have stated so. However, take a look at the projected Big 10 South. It absolutely stinks. If this goes to a football only type scenario, the Big 10 could easily dump 6 teams. This article and many like it seem to think that the other power 5 conferences already have the best schools not named Texas or Oklahoma. They should just create 4 new conferences (say NE, SE, NW, SW) and take the best 16 teams in those regions or actually the best 64 teams out there. In this case, I am not sure that UC would be selected but if you look at it, you can cut 6 from the Big 10, 3 from the SEC, 4 from the ACC, and 4 from the PAC 12 (just randomly picking numbers), then with just 33 teams listed, UC may be one of the remaining 31 teams to be included.

[Lobot]

O man LOBOT... I completely forgot your in Texas... You have way more invested in this move to the Big12 happening than we do.. Can't imagine how great it would be for you to have access to seeing 2 maybe 3 UC games in Texas each year...

Yeah, It would be nice to take a trip to Austin and Waco for a game. Lubbock you pretty much have to fly to. It's 5 hours away with no direct route. Houston would be doable as well.

[swilsonsp4]

From Kirk Bohls of the Austin A-S:

“Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby tells me the league is still exploring expansion but has no idea if a plan can be completed before the football season kicks off. Asked if the balking by ESPN and Fox might give the Big 12 an out and cool off the desire for expansion, Bowlsby said: “Nothing has changed. I have put no time frame on the process. I am not planning to comment on the processes until they are complete.” … Hard to blame ESPN and Fox for balking at paying the league so much for new teams without sizzle. I wonder why the two networks ever agreed to such a one-sided term in the first place, but ESPN and Fox operated in good faith when they did not reduce their Big 12 payments after the conference shrank to 10 teams. Mused one powerful Texas backer, “I keep thinking that ESPN could broker something regarding LHN. Would they pay $50 million to end the contract early? Could we take that and buy our way out of the conference? The closer we get to the end, the more likely that becomes, in my opinion.”

[bearcatbret]

I took a look at the top football programs (as I see them) from each conference and totaled them. Then I took the Group of 5 who think that they deserve to be included. There is room if all conferences dissolve to form a major league like set up as some have discussed. Feel free to disagree. I am not saying that all of the Group of 5 listed should be included before existing lower level power 5. It is my objective look at where each conference stands and then where the group of 5 think that they stand.

	ACC	SEC	BIG	PAC12	Big 12	Group of 5
Alabama		2
Alaska
Arizona				1
Arkansas
California				4
Colorado				1
Connecticut						1
Delaware
Florida	2					1
Georgia	1	1
Hawaii
Idaho						1
Illinois			1
Indiana	1
Iowa			1
Kansas
Kentucky	1
Louisiana		1				1
Maine
Maryland
Massachusetts
Michigan			2
Minnesota
Mississippi		2
Missouri		1
Montana
Nebraska			1
Nevada
New Hampshire
New Jersey
New Mexico
New Yourk
North Carolina	1					1
North Dakota
Ohio			1			1
Oklahoma					2
Oregon				2
Pennsylvania	1		1			1
Rhode Island
South Carolina	1	1
South Dakota
Tennessee		1				1
Texas		1			4	1
Utah				1		1
Vermont
Virginia	1
Washingtion				1
West Virginia					1
Wisconsin			1
Wyoming
TOTAL	9	10	8	10	7	10

[red_n_black_attack]

From Kirk Bohls of the Austin A-S:

“Big 12 Commissioner Bob Bowlsby tells me the league is still exploring expansion but has no idea if a plan can be completed before the football season kicks off. Asked if the balking by ESPN and Fox might give the Big 12 an out and cool off the desire for expansion, Bowlsby said: “Nothing has changed. I have put no time frame on the process. I am not planning to comment on the processes until they are complete.” … Hard to blame ESPN and Fox for balking at paying the league so much for new teams without sizzle. I wonder why the two networks ever agreed to such a one-sided term in the first place, but ESPN and Fox operated in good faith when they did not reduce their Big 12 payments after the conference shrank to 10 teams. Mused one powerful Texas backer, “I keep thinking that ESPN could broker something regarding LHN. Would they pay $50 million to end the contract early? Could we take that and buy our way out of the conference? The closer we get to the end, the more likely that becomes, in my opinion.”

I can't blame Bowlsby for saying what he said, even if there are agreements, voting done, or deals in play with Networks.

Here's a thought, the Big 12 could grow stronger through subtraction...minus Texas, adding BYU, Houston, UC. I know that today the value is eyes watching tv and Texas does that better than the three I proposed combined (probably 1.5 times as many); however, as a non-traditional linear conference network the overall value increases because a conference network isn't possible with Texas' LHN.

[bearcatbret]

http://beta.deseretnews.com/article/...ns.html?pg=all I thought that we all needed to laugh.

[blackattack]

http://sportsday.dallasnews.com/coll...xpansion-talks

This says no one has the 8 votes necessary right now...........and Texas politics has made HOUSTON the favorite to be #11.
Some things will never change with the Big12..........Texas holds most of the cards.

[Lobot]

What you're going to see here I think is some vote trading. We know we have 7 votes with Texas, TCU and Tech voting against. One of those schools will trade the 8th vote on UC to get a vote from the other 7 on Houston.